UK Aid Spending Expected to Fall Short of Goal

The United Kingdom is on track to miss its 2027 international aid target by an estimated £400 million, according to calculations released by the Center for Global Development. The research indicates that spending will fall to 0.29% of national income, which is below the government's own goal of 0.3%. This shortfall is the result of inflation running higher than forecasts and a policy shift in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office budget.

The Center for Global Development analysts presented three scenarios for the 2027 budget. The central forecast suggests a £410 million gap, while a more conservative estimate places the shortfall at £250 million. The researchers noted that a £580 million gap, equivalent to 0.28% of national income, is also a plausible outcome. Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development and co-director of its Europe programme, described these figures as material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid.

Mitchell stated that closing a gap of even £400 million would allow the government to halve planned cuts to Africa. He warned that the current trajectory could lead to thousands of lost lives and result in a de facto UK exit from the south and east of the continent. The researchers urged ministers to address the issue in the upcoming budget to avoid criticism for missing a target that the government set for itself.

The 2027 target of 0.3% is significantly lower than the 0.7% pledge made in Labour's election manifesto. Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowered the target to free up funds for defence spending. Fleur Anderson, a former minister on the foreign affairs select committee, said she wants to see higher aid spending in the current budget. She argued that hitting the reduced target is the minimum requirement, noting that missing it is not just an accounting issue but impacts communities without clean water, girls leaving school, and undelivered vaccines.

Charities have previously warned that deep aid cuts will damage children's education and increase the risk of disease in African countries. Data released by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in September showed that the cuts under the current government have hit the world's poorest nations hardest. Funding to the least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, a decrease of £118 million. The UK's overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024, a reduction of £987 million.

The government has prioritized funding through multilateral bodies such as the International Development Association and Gavi. It has also maintained humanitarian support levels. In contrast, the Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to reduce aid spending from approximately £9 billion a year to £1 billion. This proposed level would be insufficient to cover existing contributions to the United Nations and the World Bank.

A spokesperson for the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said that multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 set out spending plans for the next three financial years. These plans were based on gross national income at the time of the 2025 spending review. The spokesperson added that moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes.