Libyan Politics: Saddam Haftar Seeks Presidential Path via Turkish Deal

Saddam Haftar moved to consolidate power in eastern Libya by securing the ratification of a maritime deal with Turkey. The House of Representatives in Benghazi voted on October 20 to approve the memorandum, a move that had faced seven years of opposition in the region. This legislative step clears a major hurdle for Haftar’s bid to become the next president of Libya.

The vote signals a shift in allegiance for the eastern legislature. For nearly a decade, representatives in Benghazi criticized the agreement struck between Tripoli and Ankara. Now, the chamber has embraced it. The decision was not a spontaneous change of heart but part of a calculated strategy designed to win the support of Turkey.

Turkey holds decisive influence over western Libya. Its backing is essential for any power-sharing arrangement currently being negotiated in Washington. By accepting the maritime deal, Saddam Haftar aims to secure Ankara’s blessing for a US-brokered settlement. Massad Boulos, President Donald Trump’s senior adviser for Arab and African affairs, champions this potential deal. The agreement could install Saddam as head of state.

The path to the presidency required the removal of political rivals. Two weeks before the maritime vote, the House of Representatives unseated its speaker, Aguila Saleh. Saleh had held the position for 12 years and served as a primary ally for Cairo. He also acted as a nominal supreme commander, a role that complicated the transfer of authority from his father, Khalifa Haftar, to his son.

Saleh’s ouster removed a stubborn obstacle to the ratification process. His successor, Al-Salhin Abdulnabi, is a member of the same Obeidat tribe. This continuity helps prevent tribal backlash. Abdulnabi previously chaired the Libyan-Turkish friendship committee, signaling the chamber’s new direction. The removal of Saleh also eliminated a potential arbiter who could have delayed the succession process.

External reactions to the vote have been mixed. The European Union, Greece, Israel, and Egypt condemned the ratification. Athens and Nicosia view the deal as an encroachment on their maritime interests. Israel is uneasy about Turkey’s expanding reach in the region. Egypt’s objection focused on the impact of the memorandum on its exclusive economic zone, a legal framing that may leave political options open.

Abu Dhabi supports the succession. The United Arab Emirates views Saddam as a loyal client and a key figure in the Haftar project. Installing him at the apex of the Libyan state would cap a decade of Emirati investment. Cairo remains a variable in the equation. Egypt and Turkey have grown closer due to shared positions on Sudan and the Red Sea. However, Cairo could back Saddam’s brother, Khaled, who serves as chief of staff for the Libyan Arab Armed Forces. Khaled is closer to Egyptian interests and criticized the US initiative in April.

The outcome of Saddam’s bid depends on negotiations in Washington. The Trump administration must balance its transactional approach against the longstanding US partnership with Greece, Cyprus, and Israel. If the deal falls through, Saddam risks losing his most valuable bargaining chip. He has already traded the maritime agreement for Turkish support. His ability to maintain the backing of both Abu Dhabi and Ankara will determine if he can navigate the transition to the presidency.